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第 21 楼 / election
- 时间: 2012-10-22 00:472012-10-19
1 美元 = 0.9934
联邦财政部部长Jim Flaherty10月18日称在世界经济弱化的背景下,加拿大财政预算增长速度已放缓,接下来的秋季有可能会看到小幅下降。政府曾预测今年经济增长速度为2.1%,明年为2.4%。
最近几日美元:加元变动大:
10月15日:0.9784(Hdu: open 16.54 异常波动,成交遽然放大;close:15.77)
10月16日:0.9854
美元:加元近期最低点出现在9月14～17日前后(周五和周一.9月14日0.9647;9月17日0.973)
请点击图片查看原图
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- 时间: 2012-10-22 11:562012-10-24
1 美元 = 0.9944加元
周一(10月22日)欧市早盘小幅走高,最高触及0.9963一线。
受通胀数据疲软影响,加元兑美元短线持续走软。数据显示,加拿大9月消费者物价指数(CPI)月率上升0.2%,不及预期上升0.3%。
加拿大央行(BOC)行长卡尼(MarkCarney)稍早发表讲话态度温和,称加拿大经济面临全球经济不确定挑战。该言论打压此前有关升息言论的预期。通胀数据表明加拿大经济活跃程度减弱,同时也将令加拿大央行的升息步伐放缓,利空加元走势
此外,欧盟(EU)峰会结束后,风险情绪走软。因峰会上未有相关西班牙求援和希腊下一笔援助款项的具体细节消息。
国外知名机构GCIFinancial分析师表示,美元/加元处于20和50小时均线上方,上行阻力关注0.9968,突破该阻力将打开进一步上行空间,上看1.0008。下行方面,汇支撑0.9870,跌破后看跌至0.9811水平。 -
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- 时间: 2012-10-26 16:302012-10-26
1 美元 = 0.9964加元(今日最高触及0.9993)
www.forex.com.cn/html/c25/
Hdu收在16.3
受美国经济好于预期消息的刺激,加元兑美元的汇率在本周五(26日)跌去0.43分,到100加元兑100.18美元的低位。
美国商务部今天宣布,2012年三季度GDP(国内生产总值)的环比年化增长率为2.0%(初值)。据彭博社调查,经济学家对此的平均预期为1.9%。二季度GDP增长率的终值为1.3%。依据美国统计规则,GDP增长率将公布三版,依次为初值、修正值和最终值。不过这一数值足以刺激美元走强。
Loonie takes dive on positive U.S. economy news
Canadian dollar loses almost half a cent
The Canadian dollar was lower Friday as the U.S. dollar strengthened after a report on the American economy was better than expected.
The U.S. gross domestic product rose at a rate of two per cent in the third quarter, better than the 1.8 per cent increase that economists expected. It was also improved from the tepid 1.3 per cent growth posted for the second quarter.
Read more: www.vancouversun.com/L...z2AR1rVZ00 -
- 时间: 2012-10-29 04:042012-10-29(盘前)
1 美元 = 0.9989加元
人民币兑美元周一小幅收升,央行中间价连续第三天高开,并创五个半月来新高,受此提振,即期汇价早盘一度再创新高,并逼近日间波幅区间上限,而全天来看仍呈现净结汇,或意味着人民币短期升值趋势并未完结.有建议:“美元逢高做空吧,十八大以前美金反弹的可能性比较小."
人民币兑美元即期自7月下旬的低点至今已升值近2.5%,上周四更是以日间波幅上限6.2417元作收并创历史新高,周五早盘继续固封在波幅上限6.2380元位置,虽然尾盘人民币一度略走软,但目前看人民币强势预期尚无逆转的迹象.
市场持续大举抛售美元,人民币加速升值 热钱觊觎低估值A股。海外热钱进入国内,一般会瞄准两大目标:一是房地产,二是股市。房地产市场由于国家调控政策严厉,热钱较难大规模进入,因此,低估值的A股,就成为热钱最理想的围猎目标。管理层也希望借助海外热钱,给A股带来增量资金,并为A股改革营造较好的流动性环境。这也是近期以来QFII加速获批,QFII加速抄底A股的原因所在。对于QFII而言,市场短期的下跌并不是坏事,它们可以低价收集更多筹码。只要中国经济企稳反弹,资本市场通过改革继续完善,A股中期走强将是大概念事件。
人民币一个多月以来的强势走势,主要是受发达经济体宽松货币政策的影响。9月份以来,欧元区、美国、日本、英国均出台了新一轮量化宽松货币政策(通俗点讲就是开动印钞机),使得人民币被动升值。
人民币加速升值的另一个原因,是9月份以来,受一系列经济刺激政策提振,中国内地经济基本面出现了止跌企稳的势头,外贸数据也逐步向好,为人民币升值带来了支撑。 -
- 时间: 2012-10-29 20:21
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- 时间: 2012-10-29 22:15
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- 时间: 2012-10-30 20:2211月4日美国大选对未来经济走势的影响
But even when they leave, will things be any different?
Bernanke told us last month, "There is a consensus that even as the personnel change and so going forward, that this is (QE3 and low interest rates) the appropriate approach." He's right.
It doesn't matter who is elected or who plays puppet at the Fed, the end result will be the same: We're either going to print and inflate, or crash. We are in too deep now and there is no turning back.
住房平均价
sales of new single-family houses in September 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is the highest number since April of 2010.
But just like the recent unemployment numbers, there's a fine print (see Another Record High.)
These numbers were based on a September unadjusted number of 31K in actual sales. This unadjusted number of 31k consisted of 10K homes Not Started, 10K Under Construction, and 11K homes actually completed. What happens if the 10k homes Not Started and the 10k Under Construction never get completed, or payments stop? Doesn't matter, they still count.
In other words, they took the sale of 11k new and completed homes and turned it into an annualized seasonally adjusted number of 389k sales.
But let's play Devil's Advocate.
Let's say those numbers are correct. Let's say that the unemployment numbers from a few weeks ago can be trusted. Assuming the recent surveys are real and conclusive, we should see better numbers everywhere else; because money for housing must come from somewhere, and stronger unemployment numbers must mean there's more hiring. But is there?
The Highest Since 2010
失业率
If unemployment numbers are the best they have been January 2009, then why are "firings", not "hirings," the highest since 2010?
North American companies have announced plans to eliminate more than 62,600 positions at home and abroad since Sept. 1, the biggest two-month drop since the start of 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Firings total 158,100 so far this year, more than the 129,000 job cuts in the same period in 2011.
Here are just some of the massive job cuts:
Colgate-Palmolive Co. will cut 2,300 jobs
5,500 cuts were announced by Dow Chemical, DuPont Co. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) this past week
Hewlett-Packard Co. announced 29,000 cuts in September
Banks are eliminating more than 19,000 positions
AMD, the second-largest maker of processors for personal computers, said last week it will cut 15 percent of its staff, or about 1,665 jobs
Dow Chemical is shutting down about 20 plants in the U.S. and abroad, eliminating about 2,400 jobs
Cummins Inc. said it expects to erase as many as 1,500 jobs by the end of 2012
If there are so many people being fired, where are the jobs coming from? Can someone help answer that? Anyone?
The Merry-Go-Round
Let's talk housing numbers.
If people are losing their jobs, how can they afford new homes?
Because the banks are lending at negative zero interest rates, which means that should translate into more easily affordable housing and a spike in housing demand, of course.
As PIMCO's bond King Bill Gross just tweeted:
"Fed merry-go-round: inflate stocks til 2000. Then inflate housing til 2007. Then inflate stocks til 2012. Now inflate housing again."
But are the banks lending?
The Fed is currently monetizing $40 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities every month and keeping interest rates as low as possible in a plan to inflate housing. This should, in effect, work; low interest rates and swelling cash reserves causes banks to lend more freely.
So why aren't we seeing this reflected in the housing market?
Let's go back to what happened just a few years ago when the government inflated housing by giving free money to the banks.
The banks did what they were told and lent lots of money out; it led to the housing crash.
As a result, many of the banks were are being sued* because of the same lending policies that were practically forced onto them.
*(Just look at the hundreds of mortgage-related lawsuits against Country Wide and Merrill Lynch (now BofA) and the just announced $1 billion lawsuit against Bank of America by the US)
Count on It
If you can't bet on both housing and employment numbers, then what can you bet on?
QE. No matter what happens, you can bet more money will be printed. There are already talks that the Fed will decide to expand QE3 to more than $85 billion per month, and with Treasurys instead of MBS. This is expected to be announced at the December meeting.
The U.S. public debt is now well over $16 trillion, which means US Debt-to-GDP, is now 102.94. I've been keeping track of the debt clock for a long time and in December 2009, public debt sat at $12 trillion. That means U.S. public debt has gained more than $1.3 trillion every year.
What About Canadians?
We're not doing much better. Last week, the Bank of Canada released a note stating:
"...the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. Over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target."
The loonie fell four days in a row, the longest losing streak versus its U.S. counterpart since May*.
(This is a good thing for trade, but it won't last. Soon the U.S. will inflate and the Canadian dollar will bounce back against USD.)
Those who think the housing sector in Canada still has legs are out to lunch and haven't listened to anything I -
- 时间: 2012-11-02 12:58人民币近日大涨的原因:
10月份以后,人民币兑美元出现一波极其强劲的升值走势,而10月末更屡次触及“涨停”。这一罕见的走势,引发了市场各方的高度关注,提出了很多解释,而结合此前香港金管局干预港元升值,有观点认为是QE3导致的热钱流入境内,推升人民币汇率。
笔者并不认为人民币本轮强势是由热钱推动,原因有三:
一是人民币外汇市场的封闭性无法受到QE3影响。迄今为止,人民币外汇市场仍是一个较为封闭的境内市场,参与资金以境内为主,参与机构也以中资大行为主,走势相对独立,不易受到境外影响。而我国尽管不断推进资本项下自由兑换,但资本管制的闸门依然存在,短时间境外资金的大规模流进流出操作上难度很大,因此热钱大规模冲击一说难以令人信服。境外资金更有可能在NDF市场表达看法,但从1年NDF维持1.5%~2%的贬值预期来看,没有证据证明境外资金在押注人民币升值。
对于9月外汇占款的回升,更主要的原因在于9月即期汇率升值促使此前推迟结汇的资金大量结汇所致,而非热钱涌入,考虑到近期人民币的强劲表现,笔者相信10月份外汇占款表现应会更好,超过2000亿元的可能性很大。
二是中国目前缺少对国际资本的吸引力,或者说国际资本流入中国做什么?如果热钱涌入香港,是因为香港股市、楼市都走出升势的话,反观内地,无论股市还是楼市等资本市场,都缺乏足够吸引国际资本的条件,楼市价格过去一年来相对稳定,严格的限购政策使得“金九银十”表现惨淡,而中国股市近两年的表现更几乎沦为全球最差。在人民币升值预期大不如从前的形势下,很难想象国际资本会大规模布局中国,如果是押注未来资本市场的表现,在没有明确见底信号前,以长期蛰伏来换取未来的投资空间这种可能性虽然不能说没有,但可能性是比较小的。
中国经济前景的不确定性,也成为国际资本流入中国的障碍。虽然近期的宏观数据表现出一些企稳的信号,但这是宏观经济下行途中的一次波动,还是真实的触底信号,笔者认为还缺少有力证据的支持,如果中国经济未来呈现L形运行(这种可能性现在看来相当大),对国际资本的吸引力将会显著小于前几年。
三是忽视了人民币汇率市场的决定性力量并非热钱。对于其他中小型经济体而言,QE3激发热钱一说是有道理的,但对于中国这样一个全球经济总量第二的国家,热钱不会轻易出招。特别是在现行的汇率制度下,在超过3万亿美元外汇储备作为后盾的基础上,人民币外汇市场的主导权仍牢牢掌握在央行和中资大行的手中,即使存在热钱,也难以撼动主导权。
因此,笔者基本可以排除国际资本对人民币升值的推动作用。
那么人民币近期强势究竟是因何原因呢?笔者认为,央行近期对中间价保持较强的掌控力,持续兑美元强势,并激发市场抛售美元,是人民币走升的根本原因。在中间价坚挺之下,企业与银行都意识到,央行不会允许人民币贬值,为了避免潜在的亏损,抛售美元就成为短期的最佳策略,而近期结售汇市场汹涌的美元抛盘也符合这一判断。
央行对中间价的力挺,笔者在此不做过多分析,但应该不会构成趋势,进入11月上旬后,随着多方面因素的变化,中间价坚挺的局面有可能出现改观。
目前需要担心的,一是短期剧烈升值对出口部门的负面作用,很可能会抵消掉此前推出的提振外贸措施所带来的利好,脆弱的外贸部门,在缺少“圣诞订单”阶段性利好后,很可能在年底再次感受到下行压力;二是当市场人气极度负面后,一旦央行在力挺中间价的态度上有所后退,由于美元抛盘可能已经消耗殆尽,则极易出现市场走势的逆转,购汇盘或许会轻易推动人民币走软,除非央行适度保持对市场的干预力度。
finance.ifeng.com/bank...8892.shtml -
- 时间: 2012-11-08 20:50
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- 时间: 2012-11-16 09:04
金融资料帖之二-----美元PK加元态势追踪
