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樓主 / BigDog
- 時間: 2011-10-28 08:04Let the winners run and cut the losers short?
and why monkey is better trader than professorial traders?
Say you did 5 trade with 50/50
1. 10 in and 9 out -1
2. 9 in and 11 out +2
3. 11 in and 10 out -1
4. 10 in 12 out +2
5 12 in 11 out -1
Even you have only 40/60 chance, you are ahead.
if you follow the trend but not what you thought then your chance is 75/25. So you will be a winner! But if you insisted that you know better and insisted you are right. than your chance to lose all is high! -
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 08:27
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 08:37
蘋果花 寫道:不明白呢 
1st trade you lose 1 - cut loser short
2nd trade you gain 2 - let winner run
3rd trade you lose again lost 1 - cut loser short
4th trade you win 2 - let winner run.
5th trade you loss -1 again - cut loser short
you have only 40% time are right but you lose less and winning bigger will keep you 1 point ahead.
The key is don't insist that you are right. When wrong take the lost and move on, but when you are right keep it goes and don't be greed there is time to get out, in our case 2 points! -
- 時間: 2011-10-28 08:54 BigDog 寫道:
1st trade you lose 1 - cut loser short
2nd trade you gain 2 - let winner run
3rd trade you lose again lost 1 - cut loser short
4th trade you win 2 - let winner run.
5th trade you loss -1 again - cut loser short
you have only 40% time are right but you lose less and winning bigger will keep you 1 point ahead.
The key is don't insist that you are right. When wrong take the lost and move on, but when you are right keep it goes and don't be greed there is time to get out, in our case 2 points!
你做了5比交易:-1 + 2 -1 + 2 -1 = 1。賺了一塊錢。
什麼也不做:11 - 10 = 1。也賺了一塊錢。。。
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 08:59
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 09:08
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 09:12
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 09:22
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 09:26 BigDog 寫道:
Let the winners run and cut the losers short?
and why monkey is better trader than professorial traders?
Say you did 5 trade with 50/50
1. 10 in and 9 out -1
2. 9 in and 11 out +2
3. 11 in and 10 out -1
4. 10 in 12 out +2
5 12 in 11 out -1
Even you have only 40/60 chance, you are ahead.
if you follow the trend but not what you thought then your chance is 75/25. So you will be a winner! But if you insisted that you know better and insisted you are right. than your chance to lose all is high!
Interesting point but I don't understand why out and in at the same price in between? Wasting trasaction fee, eh?
I believe in real life you will never sell at 9 then buy it back immediatly at 9 (correct me if I was wrong but who would do that?)
By your point if we follow the trend, when it is 10 to 9, the trend is obvious down. Should we buy when the trend is down?
I recall Buffett has a theroy that, at any point of time, the price of any stock has only two directions, Up and Down, and both are at 50% chance.
Unfortunetely there is no fomular for even a 51% winning percetage at stock market. Otherwise the owners at Vegas will be very upset.
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- 時間: 2011-10-28 09:39 TopSpin 寫道:
Interesting point but I don't understand why out and in at the same price in between? Wasting trasaction fee, eh?
I believe in real life you will never sell at 9 then buy it back immediatly at 9 (correct me if I was wrong but who would do that?)
By your point if we follow the trend, when it is 10 to 9, the trend is obvious down. Should we buy when the trend is down?
I recall Buffett has a theroy that, at any point of time, the price of any stock has only two directions, Up and Down, and both are at 50% chance.
Unfortunetely there is no fomular for even a 51% winning percetage at stock market. Otherwise the owners at Vegas will be very upset.
Good god, a lot questions isn't it?
Let's see a real live exp. SnP500 last 15 days. No one knows if it is going up so big, but I thought/post at the 4th up day that trend may be up and I was in, 3 days ago market was down, but I decide it is not yet done, so keep the winner run(and I post it too) and as of today, I still don't see big drop coming but I took my qqqq and spy out only day trade up side.
The thing to me is that I can never tell if trend is up or down exactly, but if I have 50/50 and cut the loser short and keep the winner run. I will be always winning.
What happen if you...
