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楼主 / 草梅
- 时间: 2005-5-25 11:24[size=24:6d3dde3d51]Zt从开封到纽约----辉煌如过眼烟云（纽约时报专栏）[/size:6d3dde3d51]
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: May 22, 2005
KAIFENG, China
As this millennium dawns, New York City is the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth. But before we New Yorkers become too full of ourselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China.
Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans - as the Chinese headline above puts it, in a language of the future that many more Americans should start learning, "glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."
As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.
My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Changan, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above.
Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000.
An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.
Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.
As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000, but many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader.
"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades and we'll catch up with the U.S., even pass it."
She's right. The U.S. has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass us in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.
So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng?
One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years.
A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world - and that was the beginning of the end.
I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.
Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name - and yet his progeny were different.
"Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.
Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson. -
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- 时间: 2005-5-25 11:44
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- 时间: 2005-5-25 12:12
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- 时间: 2005-5-25 13:39在世界的眼中，今日的中国，有如一百年前的美国：暴发户的天堂、拜金的新兴帝国、缺乏修养的富豪、喧哗而浮躁的氛围.......但一切的一切，都挡不住四面八方赶来淘金、抢分一杯羹的人们。君不见电影《泰坦尼克》里面赌赢了一张船票的穷小子杰克，是那样兴奋地高喊，他赢的不是一张船票，而是通往淘金天堂的门票！
那时节的欧洲，有身份的人们冷眼看着美国的发展，那是一个充斥着罪犯、不法之徒和穷鬼们的天地，即使发了大财又能如何？每一块金币不都是源于血腥的暴力或狡诈的欺骗吗？这样不义之财富，这样的无法无天，没有也罢！
没想到，人算就是不如天算，两次大战相继狼烟蜂起，天时地利人和，竟造就了新美国的强大，眼睁睁看着一代世界霸主的崛起，曾引领世界新文明之先的英法德诸国，最终竟不得不让位于他们打心眼里看不起的山姆大叔，而美式文化就这样随着美国资本在全球的扩展，如同风卷残云一样逐渐吞食了整个世界。
江山代有才人出，各领风骚三五年。中国的未来是好是衰，世界的新都究在何方，套用一句中国俗语：骑驴看唱本，走着瞧！ -
- 时间: 2005-5-25 22:06[quote:4bd95aa1c6="容若"]在世界的眼中，今日的中国，有如一百年前的美国：暴发户的天堂、拜金的新兴帝国、缺乏修养的富豪、喧哗而浮躁的氛围.......但一切的一切，都挡不住四面八方赶来淘金、抢分一杯羹的人们。君不见电影《泰坦尼克》里面赌赢了一张船票的穷小子杰克，是那样兴奋地高喊，他赢的不是一张船票，而是通往淘金天堂的门票！
那时节的欧洲，有身份的人们冷眼看着美国的发展，那是一个充斥着罪犯、不法之徒和穷鬼们的天地，即使发了大财又能如何？每一块金币不都是源于血腥的暴力或狡诈的欺骗吗？这样不义之财富，这样的无法无天，没有也罢！
没想到，人算就是不如天算，两次大战相继狼烟蜂起，[b:4bd95aa1c6]天时地利人和，竟造就了新美国的强大[/b:4bd95aa1c6]，眼睁睁看着一代世界霸主的崛起，曾引领世界新文明之先的英法德诸国，最终竟不得不让位于他们打心眼里看不起的山姆大叔，而美式文化就这样随着美国资本在全球的扩展，如同风卷残云一样逐渐吞食了整个世界。
江山代有才人出，各领风骚三五年。中国的未来是好是衰，世界的新都究在何方，套用一句中国俗语：[b:4bd95aa1c6]骑驴看唱本，走着瞧[/b:4bd95aa1c6]！[/quote:4bd95aa1c6]
这两句话很有意思，是不是在目前中国领一代风骚的知识精英中间比较典型？
一，对美国强大的历史原因不甚了了；
二，对中国的未来走向盲目乐观。
？？ -
- 时间: 2005-5-25 22:30[quote:5bfffdfeae="施化"]一，对美国强大的历史原因不甚了了；[/quote:5bfffdfeae]
那么依你的看法，什么是美国强大的[b:5bfffdfeae]主要历史原因[/b:5bfffdfeae]呢？
[quote:5bfffdfeae="施化"]二，对中国的未来走向[b:5bfffdfeae]盲目[/b:5bfffdfeae]乐观。[/quote:5bfffdfeae]
对中国的未来走向，有人乐观，有人悲观。大家都有自己的理由坚持自己的观点。不管自己持哪种观点，都不该随便指责别人的观点为“盲目”。我个人觉得说别人“盲目”有很强的贬意，和一种居高临下的傲慢姿态。 -
- 时间: 2005-5-26 07:17
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- 时间: 2005-5-26 10:17
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- 时间: 2005-5-26 11:20[quote:2d59011646="施化"]美国强大的最基本原因是两个字：自由。政治自由和经济自由。并且，这种自由以限制少部分特权所有者的自由为代价。[/quote:2d59011646]
你原来说的是“[b:2d59011646]历史原因[/b:2d59011646]”，我只是对历史比较感兴趣，所以才有一问。没想到又归到“自由”上了。美国的自由众所周知，但这不是[b:2d59011646]历史[/b:2d59011646]原因。
看来对历史原因“不甚了了”正是阁下自己。
[quote:2d59011646="施化"]中国走向不容乐观的最基本原因是三个字：不自由。政治不自由和经济不自由。这种不自由以少部分特权所有者不受限制为条件。[/quote:2d59011646]
你当然有权认为中国走向不乐观，我也不想改变你的看法。我只是反感你动不动就说别人“盲目”，好像天底下就你一个人清醒似的。是不是“启蒙”瘾又上来了？
[quote:2d59011646="施化"]保持互联网的思想纯洁性，责任重大。对于二位的职业责任心，深表钦佩。[/quote:2d59011646]
我现在懒得理你这种无聊的人身攻击，你就得寸进尺，简直有点给脸不要脸。
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- 时间: 2005-5-26 11:21[quote:388149d07e="施化"]美国强大的最基本原因是两个字：自由。政治自由和经济自由。
[/quote:388149d07e]
同意你的“最基本原因”论的意见。不过，世界并不是简单到只有自由与不自由、民主与不民主这样的容易找到答案，否则，你又怎么解释同为自由民主的英法德，近半个多世纪以来，就是不如美国强大？是他们不够民主不够自由吗？此外，为什么自由民主的西欧各国，尤其德法，在国际问题上的一些立场，往往与不自由不民主的中国更为接近，而与美国反而相左呢？
施化的很多立场和意见都不错，只是过于简单化和理想化，而现实是复杂的，民主与自由并不能包打天下、包治百病，不然，西方民主自由的国家就不会也存在那么多的社会问题，同理，不民主不自由的国家的官员们也就会很容易推脱其具体的社会责任了。一个国家的强大与弱小有很复杂的内因与外因，中国汉唐在世界上的强大并不因为其有民主和自由，拿破仑的称雄一世也不因为他是如何的讲民主，彼得大帝也强过一时，我们都不能因为他们不自由不民主就否认他们不强大。
纽约时报这篇罕见的用中文写就的标题专栏文章，看问题就不是从简单的民主不民主自由不自由来入手，而是说，强大的时候，要清楚自己的弱点：落后的科技实力与教育水准，如果不警惕，就会有一天变得弱小，这是事物发展的客观规律。如果施化没有认真地读草梅所引的文章，那么我就从多维网的报导中转述如下：
[color=blue:388149d07e]《纽约时报》的这篇文章是以公元一千年时全球最繁荣城市开封衰败的历史警醒美国人，中国正在复兴，美国不可骄傲。
文章指出，美国现在是世界唯一的超级强国，纽约是全世界最重要的城市，许多美国人觉得理所当然。但是在一千年前，世界最重要的城市却是黄河边上的开封。开封在十一世纪是宋朝首都，人口超过一百万。当时的开封非常繁华，各国商贾云集，俨如一个国际都会。但今天的开封，却沦为一个连机场也没有的小城。
作者说：美国人应从开封的兴衰中记取两项教训。第一，保持科技领先和正确的经济政策。中国后来因为轻蔑商贸而使经济停滞了六百年；第二，不可过度自傲。中国曾认为毋须学习外国的东西而闭关自守，是衰败的开始。
他还说：美国的长期预算赤字问题，中小学生的数学和学居二流水准，对外国缺乏兴趣，与中国的生气勃勃、意志坚定成强烈对比。[/color:388149d07e]
这篇文章的立场不是为中国，而是为美国，希望美国能居安思危，看到挑战，保持警惕，永保世界强国地位。
Zt从开封到纽约----辉煌如过眼烟云（纽约时报专栏）
