转一个Realtor对2011年地产市场的预测，供批判

楼主 / 三木

Forecast for 2011 - Vancouver Real Estate

There is much speculation as to what will happen in Vancouver to the residential housing market next year. I think the CMHC predictions are pretty solid as we are more than half way through a five year business cycle.

If we say the 'adjustment' happened in mid 2008, that occurrence would mark the beginning of a new 5 year cycle of business. When we experience an adjustment such as that, it's a new beginning to the cycle of sales. That said, going full circle in five years, the necessity to plan ahead for the next adjustment becomes more prevalent.

Early next year we should see a stride in residential sales and modest growth in commercial real estate. The residential cycle will peak in late 2011 with the next adjustment occurring in mid to late 2012. This is something to look forward to. A relatively hot market for approximately a year starting in early 2011.

There are many who agree the five year projection in real estate is a valid perspective on the market, but I have witnessed it two times, in two different provinces. Getting a good value will continue into 2012 until the next adjustment occurs. With this adjustment, it will be important to look ahead to 2017 and develop a five year business plan, using the 2008-2012 plan as precedent. The next buyers market will likely be in late 2013.

In this Vancouver business cycle, it is important to remember the differences topographically between ourselves and the rest of the world. 40,000 net immigrants to Canada per year, and they aren't moving to Winnepeg, means more outside money and changes in the demographic of buyers of local real estate. While these changes are good, it's important to remember the local population needs accommodation too and not price them out of the running.

Best,

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