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楼主 / sspassp
- 时间: 2017-11-26 15:39In the six months since the collapse of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, there has been an upsurge of violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and 50 days of fighting in Gaza.
Yet Kerry continues to meet separately with Palestinian and Israeli leaders, looking for an opening to restart talks on a two-state solution while keeping up momentum at home, where he says Americans cannot wall themselves off from the Middle East.
“We have to be deeply engaged - deeply engaged - in this region because it is directly in the interest of our national security and our economy," he said.
But in an essay for the magazine Politico, Cato Institute analyst Justin Logan says Washington overstates the region’s importance.
“American attention to the Middle East is disproportionate compared to the Middle East’s strategic impact," he said.
On security, Kerry says no ocean can shield Americans from danger.
“And that is a primary reason why the Middle East matters. But it also matters because our friends are so important to us. We are proudly and unapologetically connected to Israel and many Arab states with whom we have worked closely for decades," he said.
Those decades of military support should have changed the U.S. view of risks facing Israel, Logan says.
“It has a qualitative military edge over all of its conceivable rivals in the Middle East. It has terrorism problems. It has a very nasty dispute with the Palestinians. But none of these endanger Israel’s survival as a Jewish state in that part of the world. So we tend to overstate that consideration," he said.
On economic risks, Logan says the Middle East accounts for just six percent of global Gross Domestic Product, including oil exports, with no one power positioned to monopolize supply.
“Iran isn’t going to conquer Saudi Arabia, vice versa, etc. So the energy security problems, which are under-defined, actually aren’t that great for us. They could be. But there’s no prospective danger in the near term," he said.
Kerry says the United States cannot walk away from the Middle East even as it approaches its own energy independence.
“Any serious disruption to the Gulf oil supplies can have major consequences for our own well-being, as well as the global economy to which we are all attached today," he said.
Kerry says the United States is also linked to the Middle East by “rich spiritual and ethical traditions” that have helped shape Americans’ belief in the importance of every human being - a conviction that he says is now “under vicious assault.”
“Sure, we could turn away, pretend that we don’t see or hear what is happening. But America would not be America if we turned our back on that suffering. It is not who we are, it is not in our DNA, and it is not in our interest," he said.
Kerry says nowhere are the “building blocks of international security” at graver risk today than in the Middle East, where in Egypt, for example, he says violence threatens to drag the entire region into “total turmoil.”在巴勒斯坦和谈破裂后的六个月里，西岸和东耶路撒冷的暴力事件激增，在加沙发生了50天的战斗。
然而，克里仍然与巴勒斯坦和以色列领导人分别会面，寻求开放，重启两国解决方案的谈判，同时保持在国内的势头，他说，美国人不能把自己从中东放在外面。
他说：“我们必须深入地参与到这个地区，因为这直接关系到我们的国家安全和经济利益。”
但卡托研究所分析家贾斯汀·洛根（Justin Logan）在“政治”杂志的一篇文章中说，华盛顿夸大了该地区的重要性。
他说：“与中东的战略影响相比，美国对中东的关注是不成比例的。
克里说，在安全方面，没有一个海洋可以保护美国人免受危险。
“这是中东问题的主要原因。但这也很重要，因为我们的朋友对我们如此重要。他说：“我们与以色列和许多与我们密切合作了几十年的阿拉伯国家感到自豪和毫无歉意地联系在一起。
洛根说，那几十年的军事支持应该改变了美国对以色列面临的风险的看法。
“它在中东所有可以想象的竞争对手方面都具有质的军事优势。它有恐怖主义问题。它与巴勒斯坦人有着非常讨厌的争端。但是，这些都不会危及以色列作为犹太人国家在这个地区的生存。所以我们倾向于夸大这个考虑，“他说。
在经济风险方面，洛根说，中东地区只占全球国内生产总值（GDP）的6％，其中包括石油出口，没有一个国家能够垄断供应。
“伊朗不会征服沙特阿拉伯，反之亦然。因此，能源安全问题的定义不明确，对我们来说并不是那么好。他们可以。但近期内并没有预期的危险，“他说。
克里说，即使美国靠近自身的能源独立，美国也不能走出中东。
他说：“任何严重扰乱海湾石油供应的做法都可能对我们自身的福祉以及今天我们所有的全球经济产生重大影响。”
克里说，美国也以“丰富的精神和道德传统”与中东联系在一起，这种传统已经帮助塑造了美国人对每个人的重要性的信念 - 他所说的信念现在是“恶毒的攻击”。
“当然，我们可以转身离开，假装我们没有看到或听到正在发生的事情。但是如果我们背弃这种痛苦，美国将不会是美国。他说，这不是我们的身份，不在我们的DNA中，也不符合我们的利益。
克里说，今天比在中东风险更大的“国际安全基石”，比如在埃及，他说暴力有可能把整个地区拖入“全面动荡”。 -
Does US Overstate Importance of Middle East?
