大选前预测:女省长可能赢得大选的10大理由 - 网友原译

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Is the Liberal leader B.C.’s comeback kid?

by Nancy Macdonald on Thursday, May 9, 2013 4:35pm - 0 Comments

For the past year, the B.C. Liberals, mired in scandals of their own doing, have been polling at least 20 points behind the NDP. Last week, the ground suddenly shifted. A Forum Research Inc. poll put the Liberals just four points behind the NDP. Later that day, Angus Reid released similar results, putting the Liberals seven points behind the NDP. And with that, the provincial election which, for the better part of a year, had been looking like a cakewalk for the NDP’s Adrian Dix, started to resemble a comeback tale for the ages for Clark’s Liberal team.

With just five days remaining before British Columbians head to the polls, it remains hard to imagine that Clark might actually close the gap. Crucially, Angus Reid puts the Liberals 10 points behind the NDP in the vote-rich ridings of B.C.’s Lower Mainland. Still, no one ever imagined the race would get this close, nor that Clark, whose two-year tenure has been marred by controversy and scandal, would perform as well as she has in the last four weeks.

Here are the 10 reasons for the Liberal surge:

1. Clark’s highly effective campaign

The Liberals have managed to frame the conversation on fiscal and economic issues—taxes, government spending and major projects like pipelines, liquefied natural gas and fracking—on which they are strong. That makes the NDP, who promise to increase taxes and government spending, show little to no interest in balancing the budget, and oppose resource mega-projects look like a risky choice. The NDP can’t seem to play their advantage, and turn the conversation to health care and education.

(理由1: 女省长超高效率的竟选)

(自由党成功将议题限定在财政和经济问题的框架内-税、政府开支、和大型工程如油管、液化天然气和注水开采等,而这些又是自由党的强项。这就使人觉得承诺加税和增加政府开支的NDP显得很少或没兴趣平衡预算,NDP反对巨型资源开发项目看起来也是一个危险的选择。NDP似乎不能发挥其长处,将对话转移到保健和教育议题上)。

2. The NDP’s decision to come out against Kinder Morgan

Dix, worried about bleeding votes to the B.C. Greens, came out against the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion two weeks ago. It was a disastrous choice.
Green Party support remains unmoved. And it’s given Clark room to claim that resource development will come to a standstill under Dix—who also opposes Enbridge’s Northern Gateway pipeline plan—killing jobs and wrecking B.C.’s shaky economy.

Dix’s stunning flip-flop has also alienated centrists, and is forcing those considering parking their vote with the Conservatives to think again.

(理由2: NDP反对 Kinder Morgan 输油管扩建工程的决定)

NDP的迪得安忧虑流向BC绿党的选票,两周前宣布反对建议中的Kinder Morgan 输油管扩建项目,这是一个灾难性的策略。
绿党的支持者并未被感动,同时还为女省长的指控提供了空间:在迪得安的领导下BC的资源开发业将处于停滞。迪得安也反对北方门户输油管计划 - 勒杀工作机会、毁灭BC省处于摇摆的经济。

迪得安(对输油管扩建工程)令人吃惊的政策改变疏远了中间选民,也迫使那些原打算投给保守党的选民重新思考(这一票如何投)。

3. The disastrous Conservative campaign

After last week’s debate, the tweet, “Cummins went full Gran Torino” was trending on Twitter—a reference to the 71-year-old B.C. Conservative leader John Cummins’ cranky incoherence during the April 29 leader’s debate. Again and again, Cummins, the only leader to rely on notes, repeated that the Liberals and NDP would “tax British Columbians to oblivion,” whatever that means. (“It’s possible,” said one observer, “that the only thing written on those notes was ‘Taxes = Bad.’ ”)

Cummins has had to fire four candidates since the campaign began; and the party, who saw support hit record levels ahead of the campaign, is looking more and more like a hopeless bunch of cranks. Potential Conservative voters have been running home to the Liberals ever since the writ was dropped.

(理由3:保守党灾难性的竟选)

上周的电视辩论之后,保守党领导人“卡敏思完全进入了电影Gran Torino”正在推特上流传 - 以形容这位71岁的保守党领导人在电视辩论中易怒和语无伦次的表现。
这位唯一借助讲稿的领导人一次又一次的重申自由党和NDP将“苛BC省民的税一直苛到忘记为止”。
卡敏思自竟选开始以来已开除了4名候选人,保守党在竟选前支持度达到创记录的水准,现在看起来越来越没有希望,选举刚开始时保守党的潜在支持者就已开始跑回到自由党阵营。

4. Debate performance

Ahead of the debate, the media narrative said that Dix just had to show up, and not embarrass himself. He did both those things, and media commentators gave him the edge coming out of the debate. But the B.C. media are used to Clark’s slick communications skills. Regular British Columbians are not. They saw something very different on April 29. Dix, who began the debate with a shaking voice, often looked terrified, even when leaning stiffly against the podium, an apparent attempt to appear relaxed. (Some in the Liberal war room were playing a drinking game, knocking back every time Dix rested against his lectern.) By contrast, Clark, a former radio show host, looked polished, at ease and was quick to pounce.

Dix may not have fumbled; but only one leader looked electable that night. Polls released later that week confirmed that the televised debate had changed a lot of minds.

(理由4:辩论中的表现)

在辩论之前,媒体说迪得安只需要露露面表现一下、不丢丑就行了。这两件事迪得安都做到了,在辩论结束后媒体评论员们认为他的表现略胜一筹。问题是BC的媒体早已习惯了简慧之园滑的交流技巧,而普通的BC选民以前并不知晓。在4月29日的辩论中,选民看到了完全不同的场面。迪德安在辩论开始时声音颤抖,经常看起来像受到了惊吓,即使是他僵硬的靠在讲台上也是如此,显然是为了显得放松。
相反,简慧之这位前电台主持,看起来充满光泽、平静并出击迅速。
迪德安也许并未表现的不得体,但是当晚只有一位看起来像可选的样子。一周后的民调证实当晚的电视辩论改变了许多人的想法。

5. Personality

The bookish NDP leader has what one analyst has dubbed a “charisma deficit.” Clark’s best assets, meanwhile, are “her personality, her optimism, her attitude,” says the University of the Fraser Valley’s Hamish Telford.

The Clark campaign has been regularly tweeting photos of the premier in hard hats, hands dirty, all smiles. It’s cheesy stuff, but it works. Dix, who was recently photographed in a goofy bowler hat in historic Barkerille, has been running a cautious, defensive campaign, limiting scrums to one a day, and restricting media access.

It took his campaign almost four weeks to finally grant Maclean’s a 10-minute interview—after near-daily rescheduling and endless dickering over when and where the interview would be conducted and how the article would be framed.

The Clark campaign had the premier on the phone within days. They had no questions nor qualms about the tone of the interview or the article itself.

(理由5: 个人性格)书呆气十足的NDP党领迪德安被一位分析家冠以“魅力缺陷”,而简慧之的最强资产就是她的“个性,她的乐观主义和她的态度”,菲沙大学的学者哈米西-特尔夫德如是说。

简慧之竟选以来定期通过推特发表这位女省长头戴安全帽、两手脏希希的照片,所有照片都充满微笑。这是些表面的东西,但起作用。迪德安最近在Barkerrille的一张照片,戴着愚蠢的礼帽,竟选非常小心和具有防卫性,竟选活动限于一天一场,并控制媒体的接近。

几乎拖了四周时间他的竟选团队才答应给媒体Maclean 10分钟的采访,而这10分钟的采访,是经过几乎每天的协商和一次次的变更安排以及无休无止的讨价还价后才取得的,讨价的内容包括何时何地接受采访以及采访的文章如何构思等。

而简慧之的竟选团队几天之内就让媒体电话连络上了女省长,对采访既没有问题也没有疑虑和担忧,对采访文章如何构思也没提要求。

6. Attack ads

Voters may claim to hate attack ads. But research shows they have their desired impact on voting behaviour. From the start, Clark’s team has been running brutal attack ads against Dix. Yesterday came the release of yet another—a clip from the televised leader’s debate where Dix was asked a question about “memogate.” (Thirteen years ago, when he was B.C. premier Glen Clark’s chief of staff, Dix backdated a memo in an attempt to protect the premier from conflict-of-interest charges. Clark, it was alleged, had traded a renovation to his East Vancouver home from an applicant for a successful casino license.)

“It was my mistake, I take responsibility,” Dix said. “I was 35 years old.” It was a cringe-worthy line—at 35, he was neither young nor inexperienced, and the Liberals pounced, including the clip in a new online attack ad.

(理由6:攻击文选)

选民可能会说痛恨负面文宣,但是研究表明负面文选对投票行为有所希望的影响。从一开始,简慧之的团队就对迪得安展开了无情的广告攻击,昨天刚又播出了另一个攻击文选广告-取的是上次领导人电视辩论时迪得安被问到的“公文门”事件的一个镜头 (13年前当迪得安是时任省长 Glen Clark 的幕僚长的时候,迪得安篡改公文日期,企图保护 Glen Clark免于利益冲突的刑事控罪。Clark 被指称给赌场申请人成功发放牌照,以换出他温东房子的装修。

迪得安说,“那是我的错,我承担责任”,“我那时35岁”。35岁既不年青,也不是没有经验,自由党抓住这点,又展开了攻击战。

7. Being forthright

Where does Dix stand on the labour code? On fracking? On liquefied natural gas? On balancing the budget? Who knows? Details, Dix says, will be revealed after the vote, raising suspicion, and providing further ammo for the Liberals.

Clark’s obsessive faith in liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the province’s salvation may seem tiresome. But at least voters know where she stands on the issue.

Dix, despite insisting he wouldn’t run negative campaign ads, began doing just that three days ago, attacking the Liberals for “years of scandals,” and of “mismanagement and misleading voters.” All fair game—though after months of making hay of his “positive” campaign, it seems a little disingenuous to suddenly reverse that promise. With less than a week to go, look for the NDP to get even more aggressive.

(理由7: 要坦诚直接)

NDP党领迪得安在劳工法、注水开采法、液化天然气、预算平衡等问题上的立场没有人知道。迪得安说细节将在投票完后公布,这就引起了疑问,也给自由党的攻击提供了火药。

简慧之对液化天然气作为本省经济救世军的执着信念可能使人乏味,但是选民至少知道她的立场。

迪得安尽管开始一直宣称不打负面文选广告,但是3天前改变了主意,攻击自由党“数年的丑闻”,“管理不善和误导选民”。这都是公平的游戏 - 尽管经过宣称数月的正面竟选之后,突然改变先前的承诺有些不诚恳。离最后投票不到一周时间,会看到NDP的负面文选会更猛烈。

8. The economic climate

Dix may have won endorsements from noted environmentalists like Tzeporah Berman by opposing both proposed pipelines through B.C., pledging to maintain moratoriums on tanker traffic, promising environmental reviews on fracking and calling into question LNG—one of the few bright spots in B.C., beyond the condo market. But it’s a hard sell to regular British Columbians in this economic climate, particularly when Dix is also promising major spending increases. Even support for the Keystone XL pipeline is growing in the U.S., amid polls showing that people’s desperation for jobs outweighs their concerns for the climate.

(理由8: 经济气候)

迪得安通过反对建议中的两条油管工程、声言维持油轮交通的暂停、承诺对注水开采法进行环评以及对液化天然气项目进行质疑,可能已经赢得了着名环保人士如 Tzeporah Berman的支持。液化天然气是BC少有的亮点之一,已超过房市。

但是在目前的经济气候下,很难说服普通的省民,特别是当迪得安同时答应大幅增加政府开支的时候。即使在美国XL输油管的支持度也在上升,民调显示民众对工作的渴求超过对气候的担忧。

9. The Canucks early playoff exit

Two years ago, Christy Clark’s government held a referendum on the HST in the middle of the Canucks’ Stanley Cup run. Campaigners had to struggle to be heard through the din. Few tuned in, spoiling door-knocking plans and derailing pro-HST messaging. The harmonized tax, of course, failed on the June 30, 2011, vote.

This week, the city’s beloved Canucks became the first team to exit the playoffs, unceremoniously swept in four straight game by San Jose. All of a sudden, British Columbians are tuning into an election campaign that had, until now, been seen as the second-most important race in town.

(理由9: Canucks 冰球队的提前出局)

两年前简慧之政府在Stanley杯期间举行HST公投。HST支持者很难使自己的声音在吵闹声中被听到,很少人关注,敲门计划也告吹,亲HST的信息也偏离了轨道。自然,HST在2011年6月30日的公投中失败。

这周,全城最爱的冰球队成为首支出局的球队,4场连输,突然之间,BC省民转向省选的竟选,这次选举,已被看成是城中第二重要的比赛。

10. Polls don’t tell a complete story

(理由10:民调不能告诉故事的全部)

最近的几次选举使得民调人士脸红,最着名的是阿省的选举,民调预测野枚瑰会在2011年的省选中获多数席位,结果是保守党赢舒适的大多数。

类似的还有,民调者对于NDP在2011年的联邦大选中如何能横扫魁人集团,也没有一点线索,民调者预测的保守党少数政府确成了舒服的大多数。

尽关民调预测NDP将成为BC的多数党政府,自由党正热切希望阿省的场景在BC省重现。

Pollsters in recent elections have looked red-faced, notably in Alberta, where they predicted a Wildrose majority in October 2011, only to see the Conservatives returned to power with a comfortable majority. Pollsters similarly didn’t have a clue that the NDP would wipe out the Bloc in Quebec in the 2011 federal election; and the Conservative minority they predicted was actually a comfortable majority for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The Liberals are desperately hoping the Alberta scenario repeats in B.C., where pollsters are still predicting an NDP majority.