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樓主 / 放肆桀驁
- 時間: 2019-8-31 17:34
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- 時間: 2019-8-31 17:34
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- 時間: 2019-8-31 17:42life.spectator.co.uk/a...ken-bonds/
現在別人開始擔心，總不至於繼承先人房地產，卻把先人債務全賴掉吧？
寫道:According to the Bank for International Settlements, the value of China-issued debt at the end of June was $9.9 trillion, making it the world’s third largest bond market behind Japan ($13 trillion) and the US ($38 trillion). UBS tips the asset class to double in size over the next five years, then double again. Citi expects annual purchases of Chinese bonds to hit $3 trillion by the mid-2020s. You may not be plugged into China’s bond markets now, but you will be once insurers and fund managers begin to diversify their holdings.
Doubts remain, however. China’s economy is more fragile than it looks. Crisis will strike at some point — and how will Beijing cope if bondholders react by dumping their paper en masse? And what of defaults? A few smaller corporates have failed to meet interest payments on their bonds: a solar-panel maker, Shanghai Chaori, was first to do so in 2014. But what if a major state-run firm defaults, or a debt-laden government body? Investors assume Beijing will backstop such events. But for answers, students of financial history might turn to China’s last serious dalliance with debt markets.
Between 1900 and 1940, a series of unstable Chinese regimes flooded global markets with bonds. In 1913, the year after the fall of the last Qing emperor, a rudderless state sold ￡25 million worth of ‘gold loan’ bonds. But after Mao’s communists took power in 1949, they refused to meet previous debt obligations. The worthless but elegant bonds became collectors’ items of a different kind.
It may be hard to imagine the current iteration of Mao’s party, refined and modernised as it is, collapsing and being replaced by a new political movement. But come the 2030s, maybe a new emperor will be on the throne, or maybe China will be a vibrant democracy. And one thing’s for sure, my pension fund and your wealth-manager-generated investment portfolio will contain a big bundle of Chinese bonds. Will China’s new leaders honour the obligations of their predecessors? Or will history repeat itself? Only time will tell. -
- 時間: 2019-8-31 17:43
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- 時間: 2019-8-31 20:15
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- 時間: 2019-8-31 20:18
自古以來的土地，自古以來的債
