今年會大漲的和大跌的資源類品種。

teddybearvan 寫道:

金子 寫道: teddybearvan 寫道: 金子 寫道: teddybearvan 寫道: 金子 寫道: 美國保持低利率3年,又不發行多的貨幣,說明經濟將走入正軌,有信心。那麼那些上漲品種符合走牛條件,而下跌品種將走熊。 你這解釋用在金上OK,不過銀也用於工業的,如果經濟將走入正軌,因該漲的吧? 另外北美天然氣嚴重過剩,氣態天然氣由於運輸原因不可能大規模出口,大漲希望不大吧? 天然氣液態的也可以啊。天然氣價格將直擊歐洲經濟。 金銀是兄弟,金下跌,銀也跑不了。 液態天然氣產量很小,比如CHK年產的天然氣只有16%是液態,說白了液態天然氣是附產品,而不是主產品。另外如果要海運去歐洲,價格馬上沒競爭力了,歐洲從RUSSIA買GAS,就是因為走管道,便宜。 金銀在中文裡是兄弟,在市場裡完全兩碼事,建議年比較一下SLV 和 GLD 過去一年的價格變化。 可以走亞洲啊。CHK要收貨,狂炒天然氣。歷來2-5月,是天然氣漲的季節。另外,如要打擊歐洲經濟,炒高天然氣是很重要的一環。 SLV與GLD走勢不同是因為加高期貨保證金的時間不一樣。SLV先炒,前年當大幅加高保證金時,立馬大幅下跌。黃金在去年1900時,加高,也大幅下跌。現在同漲跌。 液態天然氣可出口,但產量很小,另外不管亞洲歐洲,一加運費,沒多少利潤了,所以出口歐亞的量很少。歷來2-5月,是天然氣漲的季節,沒錯,那是因為冬天高峰,庫存大幅下降,今年GAS庫存創紀錄,還漲個啥?看看CHK2012的OUTLOOK,是限產保價。另外美國現在很多電廠都在進行改造,用燒氣的設備替代燒煤的,因為氣太便宜了,要是今年GAS的價格真翻番的話,這些電廠都要破產了。 銀是有工業用途的,最近漲是經濟看好,隨BASIC MATERIAL漲。金漲是個意外,大把的人和你有同樣觀點認為經濟向好,金價會跌。你可以直接去比金銀的歷史價,完全兩種東東。

當石油從2008年7月的140跌到2009年1月的40,期間也有庫存大幅下降的時候,該跌還是跌。從1月後漲到現在的100多,當中也有庫存大漲的時候,價不跌就是漲,其中沒有一定正相關的道理。GAS漲,電廠破產了,怎麼啦,難道為了電廠,GAS一定要跌,有這道理的嗎?
銀子有一定的工業用途,但量比占多少呢?傳統意義上,機構投資也是將銀子與黃金的漲跌掛鉤的,看這幾個月的走勢,基本同一軌道。空銀是一旦跌,它的下降速度比黃金快。

teddybearvan 寫道:

金子 寫道: teddybearvan 寫道: 金子 寫道: teddybearvan 寫道: 金子 寫道: teddybearvan 寫道: 金子 寫道: 美國保持低利率3年,又不發行多的貨幣,說明經濟將走入正軌,有信心。那麼那些上漲品種符合走牛條件,而下跌品種將走熊。 你這解釋用在金上OK,不過銀也用於工業的,如果經濟將走入正軌,因該漲的吧? 另外北美天然氣嚴重過剩,氣態天然氣由於運輸原因不可能大規模出口,大漲希望不大吧? 天然氣液態的也可以啊。天然氣價格將直擊歐洲經濟。 金銀是兄弟,金下跌,銀也跑不了。 液態天然氣產量很小,比如CHK年產的天然氣只有16%是液態,說白了液態天然氣是附產品,而不是主產品。另外如果要海運去歐洲,價格馬上沒競爭力了,歐洲從RUSSIA買GAS,就是因為走管道,便宜。 金銀在中文裡是兄弟,在市場裡完全兩碼事,建議年比較一下SLV 和 GLD 過去一年的價格變化。 可以走亞洲啊。CHK要收貨,狂炒天然氣。歷來2-5月,是天然氣漲的季節。另外,如要打擊歐洲經濟,炒高天然氣是很重要的一環。 SLV與GLD走勢不同是因為加高期貨保證金的時間不一樣。SLV先炒,前年當大幅加高保證金時,立馬大幅下跌。黃金在去年1900時,加高,也大幅下跌。現在同漲跌。 液態天然氣可出口,但產量很小,另外不管亞洲歐洲,一加運費,沒多少利潤了,所以出口歐亞的量很少。歷來2-5月,是天然氣漲的季節,沒錯,那是因為冬天高峰,庫存大幅下降,今年GAS庫存創紀錄,還漲個啥?看看CHK2012的OUTLOOK,是限產保價。另外美國現在很多電廠都在進行改造,用燒氣的設備替代燒煤的,因為氣太便宜了,要是今年GAS的價格真翻番的話,這些電廠都要破產了。 銀是有工業用途的,最近漲是經濟看好,隨BASIC MATERIAL漲。金漲是個意外,大把的人和你有同樣觀點認為經濟向好,金價會跌。你可以直接去比金銀的歷史價,完全兩種東東。 當石油從2008年7月的140跌到2009年1月的40,期間也有庫存大幅下降的時候,該跌還是跌。從1月後漲到現在的100多,當中也有庫存大漲的時候,價不跌就是漲,其中沒有一定正相關的道理。GAS漲,電廠破產了,怎麼啦,難道為了電廠,GAS一定要跌,有這道理的嗎? 銀子有一定的工業用途,但量比占多少呢?傳統意義上,機構投資也是將銀子與黃金的漲跌掛鉤的,看這幾個月的走勢,基本同一軌道。空銀是一旦跌,它的下降速度比黃金快。 “當石油從2008年7月的140跌到2009年1月的40,期間也有庫存大幅下降的時候,該跌還是跌。從1月後漲到現在的100多,當中也有庫存大漲的時候,價不跌就是漲,其中沒有一定正相關的道理” - 沒看懂你想說啥。 “GAS漲,電廠破產了,怎麼啦,難道為了電廠,GAS一定要跌,有這道理的嗎?”- 電廠改設備是經過論證的,因為GAS價格會長期處在低位,GAS比COAL更便宜,所以才會改。 不多說了,今年年底在看你這GAS會大漲,金銀大跌的推斷准不准,

炒作中庫存與價格無關。
論證不一定正確。
最後,多辨無意,事實說話。

“銀子有一定的工業用途,但量比占多少呢?” - 掃掃盲，買賣銀子，居然不知道用途。

In 2008, the world silver demand was as follows: 53 percent of all silver demand was for industrial use, 24 percent for jewelry and silverware, 13 percent for photography, 7 percent for coins, and 3 percent for investment. Most of the silver used in industrial applications now is for electrical components, such as cell phones, laptops, iPods, televisions, and any appliances that have an electronic motherboard. The future of electric cars and silver-zinc batteries will increase the consumption of silver。

Industrial demand
Prices this year are not expected to be driven up by silver’s industrial personality. HSBC predicts that industrial demand will likely support prices, but expects growth to be moderate. ScotiaMocatta made similar predictions citing cautious consumers and the outlook for a difficult 2012 as reasons for softening fabrication demand though new applications may result in modest growth.
Mining production was expected to increase by 30 million ounces in 2011 and by a similar amount this year. Production from recycling has been on the rise and is expected to continue in 2012. Silver is a commodity in surplus and there is little indication that will change anytime soon.
TD Securities predicts that oversupply is a risk for prices.”In the past, silver’s industrial side has generated deep corrections for the white metal and we don’t expect it will be much different this time around, with a correction to materially below $25/oz entirely possible,”the firm said.

Investment activity
Given the state of supply and the potential of a global slowdown, investors should not expect supply and demand fundamentals to be a real driver of prices. On the contrary, a strong silver market in 2012, if realized, is expected to rest on the backs of investors. Market sentiment will be, by most analysts accounts, the make or break factor this year.
Many long term investors seemed to have largely maintained their positions last year. Further rebuilding of long term investments is expected. Coin and small bar demand was also strong and is expected to remain positive in 2012. Together these investors provide more support for silver prices.
But the real volatile swings in prices are likely to come if and when speculators and safe haven seekers start avidly entering and exiting the game. Economic conditions are expected to be a draw and a positive fundamental for silver at times. But, investors should have their eyes peeled on why prices move when they do.
At the ETF Securities Precious Metals Conference, Steel warned that investors should expect a lot of volatility due to a number of false positives from the euro.
ScotiaMocatta warns that currency debasement and deflation could prompt safe haven interest in the short to medium term. However, the firm also warns that though investors may show up when in need of saftey, when it appears that the West is getting their finances in order, large scale disinvestment is expected as people will likely prefer assets offering better returns.
Though the US is still plagued with debt, investors should keep their eyes on positive economic data from that nation. The dollar has made a strong showing at the start of 2012 and if this continues, even with economic uncertainty elsewhere, it could be a struggle for silver to reel in safe haven cash.

teddybearvan 寫道:

“銀子有一定的工業用途,但量比占多少呢?” - 掃掃盲，買賣銀子，居然不知道用途。 In 2008, the world silver demand was as follows: 53 percent of all silver demand was for industrial use, 24 percent for jewelry and silverware, 13 percent for photography, 7 percent for coins, and 3 percent for investment. Most of the silver used in industrial applications now is for electrical components, such as cell phones, laptops, iPods, televisions, and any appliances that have an electronic motherboard. The future of electric cars and silver-zinc batteries will increase the consumption of silver。

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