[初學者]

騰訊科技訊（清雨）北京時間7月2日消息，據國外媒體報道，摩根大通周四向蘋果投資者發出了投資安全的建議，並預計隨著iPhone和iPad在市場上的熱銷，蘋果股價在未來一年半的時間內將會達到一個新的高度。

摩根大通分析師把蘋果股票列入了重點關注股票的名單，同時也提高了蘋果股票的目標價格，認為到明年12月份蘋果股價將會達到390美元。分析師Mark Moskowitz表示，得益於iPhone和iPad銷售的快速增長，加上Mac電腦在國際市場上的機會，蘋果股價將會達到一個新的高度。他表示：“我們最近對蘋果股票目標價格的調整並不是最終的。我們預計未來兩年內蘋果的利潤增長率將會超過20%，我們需要重新評估蘋果的股票。”

Moskowitz 認為，iPhone 4最終將會促進蘋果的iPhone每季度銷量突破1000萬部的門檻。他表示今年9月蘋果就會實現這一目標。之前，他認為，蘋果實現這一目標要到明年3月份。上一季度，蘋果的iPhone銷量達到了875萬部，這也是該手機上市以來季度銷售的最佳成績。

上述預測數字並不包括市場普遍預期的兼容Verizon網絡的CDMA iPhone的銷售。在Bloomberg報道說該手機將於明年1月上市後，有關該手機的傳言再度興起。Moskowitz指出，從目前所獲信息來看，Verizon版iPhone手機最早將於明年上市。不過，摩根大通對此持謹慎觀點。他說：“就Verizon而言，我們認為問題仍是相關的補貼問題。即便這不是什麼問題，那麼Verizon也會面臨4G LTE網絡建設的問題，目前該網絡仍處於發展初期。預計，美國28座主要城市要到明年中期才具備開通這種網絡的能力。”

Moskowitz 認為：“盡管iPad上市時間不長，但隨著暑期銷售季節的來臨，iPad的銷售可能會更加火爆。之前，摩根大通認為，iPad上市後並不會引起消費者的注意，在今後具備更多功能後才會暢銷。但摩根大通現在認為，蘋果在今年第二季度將可以售出380萬部iPad，2011財年將會售出2150萬部 iPad。”他說：“預計，iPad將是今年暑期最為暢銷的商品。盡管有一些新產品會陸續上市，但是並不會影響iPad的銷售。與iPhone一樣，iPad充分體現了蘋果面向消費者發布無可比擬技術體驗的能力。”

Moskowitz 最後表示，受iPad暢銷效應的影響，Mac電腦近期的銷售可能也會增加。摩根大通把當季Mac電腦的銷量從之前預期的311萬台，下調至305萬台，把 2011財年Mac電腦的銷量從之前預期的1595萬台，下調至1559萬台。不過，Moskowitz同時指出，Mac電腦在海外仍有巨大商機。他說，隨著時間的推移，蘋果應該可以進一步滲透到國際市場，即便蘋果在全球市場的份額只有其美國市場份額的一半，那麼營收也會達到數十億美元。

[吾鄰高手]

apple創意已經衰竭，這在走微軟的路

[ranchgirl]

小心，富士康漲工資 從900到2000，最後成本到iphone

[Keymaker]

富士康的代工成本只占售價的極低百分點（網上可查到）。另一方面，蘋果不可能同意吸收富士康的全部成本增加。這是代工業的規則。實際上，有其他代工業者在撬富士康的牆角，搶蘋果的單子。

[Spocky]

iPhone 4 has signal issue tho!

Hope they can fix it from software update,

Otherwise, it will be really fun ...

[cindycai]

It's been fixed.

[BigDog]

'蘋果股價受iPhone及iPad助推年內有望漲5成'

Really? I am ready to short this sucker all the way...
1. Ixxx sucks
2 Its a fashion product, just like other fashion product clothing, toy, and so on. It comes fast and gone in no time.
3. Doesn't matter how do you slice it, it is an overpriced stock, it is riding on the fashion, not on it products. Remember 'Pet rock' in the 70' or 'Power ranger' in the 90' where are they now?

This is 7th years of Apple product cycle, its perfect time to short this sucker!

Do not invest base on this post, totally personal opinion, I don't know Apple stock at all.

[BigDog]

cindycai 寫道:

It's been fixed.

No, signal issue still there, they just change the way its phone's calculates the strength of the signal.

'No signal, no problem, all we need to do is recalculate the bars...'

[滷蛋]

BigDog 寫道:

'蘋果股價受iPhone及iPad助推年內有望漲5成' Really? I am ready to short this sucker all the way... 1. Ixxx sucks 2 Its a fashion product, just like other fashion product clothing, toy, and so on. It comes fast and gone in no time. 3. Doesn't matter how do you slice it, it is an overpriced stock, it is riding on the fashion, not on it products. Remember 'Pet rock' in the 70' or 'Power ranger' in the 90' where are they now? This is 7th years of Apple product cycle, its perfect time to short this sucker! Do not invest base on this post, totally personal opinion, I don't know Apple stock at all.

I think it's going to have a jump after the release of the global sales number just like iPad and the first iPhone.
However, over time 滷蛋我個人認為他並無法維持高價位 cuz like u said it's overpriced.

[Spocky]

can't agree with BigDog and strew egg anymore...

It's really overprice. I don't know apple that much; however, they are only selling hardware. There are no service at all. Any other company who has better idea can take the leading role at any time. All they need is a better idea.

Grow 50% by the end of the year is a bit too much...... 248 today, 372 by the end of this year?

Wow~~ 50% is a little bit tooooo much..