This analyst estimate is one that has been expressed in the past year
by other firms. However these timely reports only seem to surface a
few weeks before earnings reports. Here is the formula for an
analyst's success: 1) Have lunch, go golfing, play bridge with
executive, etc., for what ever company your analyst firm is tracking.
This is referred to as social research. 2a) If your "social research"
shows upcoming profits/growth, then hammer the stock in a report
driving its price down. 2b) If your "social research" shows upcoming
decline/loss, then pump up the stock in a report, causing a buying
frenzy. 3) Advise your your biggest clients in a separate lunch,
golf game, bridge match, to buy on the dips for the stocks you
hammered, and take profits on the stocks that you pump. 4) Wait for
report. 5) Pretend to look surprised that your estimate was off, on
CNBC's. 6) Collect your bonus at the end of the quarter. 7) Explain
to your children how being an analyst is like being a News Weatherman
-- you don't have to be right most of the time AND you still get to
keep your job.
Long story short -- look at the trends for FNM for the last year. The
stock gets hammered just before every quarterly earnings report and
then goes through the roof when they announce positive news. This
time around is the same. Don't be manipulated.
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