近８０％的BC省民接受調查時認為目前不是賣房子的好時機。
Bank calls slide in housing market overstated
Canada's housing boom has ended, but the shift to a buyer's market is no reason for alarm, according to an analysis by one major bank Thursday.
Another big bank contended that even the recent 10 per cent fall in Canadian housing prices is significantly overstated.
"We argue against taking an overly alarmist view to domestic housing prospects,"said Adrienne Warren, economist and real estate market specialist at Scotiabank. "This is not a U. S.-style bust caused by over building, speculative buying and imprudent lending, but rather a cyclic slowdown accompanied by a valuation adjustment in several large centres where booming demand conditions and temporary supply constraints led to an overshooting in prices."
In a separate analysis, TD Bank calculated that home prices last month were down only 4.6 per cent from a year earlier, less than half the 10.9 per cent reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association.
"As suspected, the difference arises predominantly because of large double-digit drops in sales in some of Canada's most expensive markets in British Columbia, which our index controls for," TD said, noting that sales in that province were down 50 per cent from a year earlier. "Since average prices in British Columbia are the highest in the nation, the drop in sales tends to overstate the extent of price declines."
Survey results by polling firm Ipsos Reid, also released Thursday, suggest sales in B. C. will be falling further. Nearly 80 per cent of British Columbians surveyed said it's not a good time to sell a home.
Meanwhile, Scotiabank in its report conceded that Canada's longest housing boom of the post-war period has come to an end.
While the reversal has been most pronounced in the previously hottest markets of Western Canada, including Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver, conditions in virtually all regions are tilting back in favour of buyers for the first time in years, it said.
Canadian home prices will likely fall further in light of the expected weakness in employment and in the economy, but much less than they have in the U. S., the report indicated. It projected national average prices will fall up to 15 per cent from their late-2007 peak.
Much of the decline will occur in Canada's three westernmost provinces and will leave intact most of the significant price appreciation of recent years, it said.
COMMENTS ON THIS STORYAdd Your Commentsibayan@telus.netFri, Nov 21, 08 at 11:05 AM
Now is the time to spend our RRSP contribution or in a coming year as down payment for our first home .Waiting and patience to let the price goes down is in favor for me as of now .Want to read more on this article everyday, actually many are buying your papers just to read about real estate nowadays.
whatupFri, Nov 21, 08 at 11:24 AM
Overstated due to the huge drop in BC that will lead the nation in terms of % price drops. Still too expensive.
RealisticFri, Nov 21, 08 at 11:43 AM
The reality is that the house market is melting as fast as the TSX- it would seem both real estate agents, banks and some home owners (mostly people who either just bought in or have large mortgages) are in denial- just spoke to a home builder in our area- he listed a new 2800 sq foot house for 459k and just sold it for 350k (took 6 months)- according to the local real estate board prices are still going up in our area- what a joke. Sales are down, listing are away up. None of the 6 new houses in phaze four of our subdivision have sold - even though prices have been dropped by 155k yet the builder is still building more.
MRFri, Nov 21, 08 at 12:10 PM
MEDIA IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM. THEY NEVER TELL IT LIKE IT IS, THEY ALWAYS FIND A NEED TO OVER EXAGGERATE EVERYTHING TO RAISE INTEREST IN THEIR STORIES AND THE END RESULT IS EVERYONE ALL OF A SUDDEN IS IN A PANIC SITUATION.
gotta love it)Fri, Nov 21, 08 at 12:25 PM
man where do I get on of these jobs predicting the future and not getting fired or suspended for being wrong lol and you thought weatherman had it good!!! The banks and the media have been spoon feeding us nothing but lies for the last year. The gig is up the federal goverment knew this was coming months ago why do you think we had an early election? Christmas has been canceled time to get back to basics a nice meal good friends. Wait till you see Essex county this time next year SAVE YOUR MONEY!!!
funnyFri, Nov 21, 08 at 12:44 PM
The banks have no clue.They lie to TRY and get more idiots to buy at high prices .Bigger the mortgage more money for them..Prices will continue to drop 30% Don't buy now..Wait untill the market bottoms out.. u will know when it does !
calFri, Nov 21, 08 at 01:08 PM
Sorry renters.
Don LapreFri, Nov 21, 08 at 01:53 PM
Yes, move along, nothing to see here! Fundamentals are sound, buy real estate! Real estate always goes up so just ignore the price you pay, sit back and become rich! Price/rent? Price/income? Those metrics don't matter any more, this is a new paradigm, we have reached a permamently high plateau, this time it's different! - THIS MESSAGE BROUGHT TO YOU BUY YOUR LOCAL BANK,
CMHC AND THE GVREB
10% is OverstatedFri, Nov 21, 08 at 02:15 PM
Really, come vist Windsor, it's understated!!!!!!!
DONFri, Nov 21, 08 at 02:15 PM
Yeah right! Even the tax assessors agree my home value has dropped 24% in the last few years, and I live in the near west side of Windsor. The "double cohort" being over, homes around here often can be neither sold, nor rented out.
MikeFri, Nov 21, 08 at 03:34 PM
Who you trying to fool? Lets just look at the condo market alone in the lower mainland. 75% of them were bought or are owned by people who had no intention of ever living in them. They were bought to flip for profit upon completion or as rental properties. This is considered over building as the ownership rates of the tenants themselves are low.The housing market in Vancouver is so over valued that if you compare it to cities in North America which are much larger then ours, it shocks you how over priced we are without having decent reasoning.
Jimmy the GreekFri, Nov 21, 08 at 03:43 PM
Ask the folks in Windsor/Essex county if this is the case!
Beware BankersFri, Nov 21, 08 at 03:45 PM
Given that banks can no longer make juicy returns from commercial lending/investment (IPO) banking, they are looking to retail customers and trying to get more mortgage activity (house sell/buy activity) by encouraging real estate transactions in a down market with self-serving data reports.
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