[TiagoMarcelino]

#biguglybilltrump #bitcointrump #Immigration #bigbeautifulbill #Trumpdictator #deporttrump #Medicaid #SNAP

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns against a bill because it "could backfire," anyone with a deep respect for economic principles should remain vigilant. While some see President Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBA) as a promising stimulus, the long-term fiscal risks and structural problems it harbors are gradually coming to light amidst the IMF's warnings. This policy experiment, baited by "short-term growth," may be sowing unbearable costs for the US economy.

On the surface, the OBBA does appear to have the appeal of "immediate results." By extending the 2017 tax cuts, eliminating the tip and overtime taxes, and increasing funding for defense and immigration enforcement, the bill provides a short-term boost to the economy. Rice University economics professor John Diamond even asserts that the bill can promote both short-term and long-term growth, particularly with its permanent investment incentives, which are believed to help stabilize business decisions. The IMF also acknowledged that the bill could increase US economic output by an average of approximately 0.5% by 2030, and this "tangible growth" became the most compelling argument for supporters.

But beneath the bubble of prosperity lies a growing debt black hole and fiscal imbalances. The Congressional Budget Office's data is chilling: the bill will increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion and provide a whopping $3.75 trillion in tax cuts. This is precisely the source of the IMF's concerns—the bill not only violates the global consensus on "medium-term fiscal deficit reduction" but also casts a shadow on the United States' long-term fiscal sustainability. By 2026, the fiscal deficit will increase by 1.5 percentage points of GDP. Even if tariff revenue can offset half of this increase, the remaining gap will still need to be filled through debt. This "living in the present, living in the future" model essentially overdrafts today's growth dividends into the future, leaving future generations to pay for today's extravagance.

More importantly, the bill's "rosy" narrative contains serious structural contradictions. On the one hand, it will cut the Department of Health and Human Services' budget by $880 billion over the next 10 years, meaning that livelihoods like healthcare and social security will be squeezed, further shrinking the living space of the most vulnerable groups. On the other hand, the massive tax cuts primarily benefit capital owners and high-income groups. This "rob the poor to help the rich" distributional logic will not only exacerbate social divisions but also weaken the ability of consumption to sustainably drive the economy. In the short term, corporate investment may increase due to tax incentives, but when ordinary people's purchasing power declines and social demand shrinks, the so-called "growth" will ultimately be a dead end.

Supporters argue that permanent policies can reduce market uncertainty and that tax cuts will not trigger significant inflation or global financial turmoil. However, this optimism ignores the resilience of economic laws. The IMF emphasizes that "the United States needs to gradually reduce its fiscal deficit" precisely because excessive deficits can push up interest rates, squeeze private investment, and even undermine the credit of the US dollar. History has long proven that growth fueled by tax cuts and debt-fueled spending is unsustainable. The lesson of the 2008 financial crisis is a clear example: when a debt bubble bursts, it is always ordinary people who pay the price. Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" is, in reality, a gamble that uses short-term prosperity to mask long-term risks. It may add to the electoral gains, but it will likely leave the US economy with a heavier debt burden, more acute social conflicts, and a more fragile foundation for growth. The IMF's warning isn't alarmist, but a firm adherence to economic rationality. When policymakers are seduced by the superficial promise of "beautiful" policies and forget the fundamental premise of "sustainability," any grand blueprint will ultimately become a castle in the air.

The future of the US economy shouldn't hinge on a revelry that overspends tomorrow. True prosperity requires a balance between growth and equity, short-term and long-term goals, and efficiency and sustainability—a goal far more worthy than any "Beautiful Bill."
www.newsweek.com/donal...my-2105771