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LUSUN |
LUSUN 于 2019-12-03 12:23 写道: Here are the highlights of today's REBGV November, 2019 release: -All sales = 2,498 -That is a 55.3% y/y increase; however, November, 2018 sales were off 42.5%. -Sales are down 13.7% from October, 2019. -Sales are 4% above the 10 year average. -There has been an overall -4.6% HPI Benchmark* price decline on a year over year basis -This is the 9th consecutive month of year over year price declines. Housing Categories: -Detached prices -5.8%* y/y Townhouse prices = -4.4%* y/y Condo prices = -3.8%* y/y BTW, many RE market observers do not assign much credibility to Benchmark prices; they claim those figures are delayed by 4-6 months, are easily manipulated and the real figures are often quite different (in this case "worse"). Remember, some of these sales occurred in October (and even September in some cases) and have been carried over into the November stats due to when realtors reported them to the board. According to recent analysis by MVHC members, Brad Blakley, Jeff Carnahan and Sam Huo, "firm contract dates" for this past November are trending lower than those of November, 2018. "The trend is your friend" |
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| 楼主 | |||
| seagirl |
seagirl 于 2019-12-03 13:08 写道: 哇塞 腰斩啦腰斩啦 |
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| 不怕没柴烧 |
不怕没柴烧 于 2019-12-03 13:09 写道: 侬的统计最准 别的都不对 |
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| LUSUN |
LUSUN 于 2019-12-03 13:15 写道:
偶这个是COPY来的，你的一样是COPY，无关你我，哈哈 |
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| LUSUN |
LUSUN 于 2019-12-03 13:42 写道: The REBGV story gives you 22% up, 12% down. The Contract story gives you 3% up, 18% down. This is just for REBGV, all types etc. September, October, November, December (start) What we see here is the lagging history or "due diligence" periods for each of the months. Contracted months represented by rows intersected by the reported dates represented by columns. The trend to watch on this one is diagonal or "step" based. IE 1361 to 1636 to 1464 and then 940 to 1193 to 1026. You can also contrast REBGV's "reported" sales (bottom total) against the contract date total down the last column September 2364 reported vs 2595 contract October 2893 reported vs 2664 contract November 2546 reported vs 1464 + 776(projected)= 2240 (my projected actual, divided last three totals by number of business days then projected that into 15ish business days because of xmas shut downs) Hide or report this  2 |
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| Bless |
Bless 于 2019-12-03 13:53 写道: 说明zolo数据确实偏差挺大啊 |
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| LUSUN |
LUSUN 于 2019-12-03 14:00 写道:
ZOLO报的是平均数据，各类型的房子统计还是可靠的。 |
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| engaging |
engaging 于 2019-12-03 14:57 写道: 'HPI的数值才更misleading吧，都不知道HPI是怎么定义的。 |
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| 1qa2ws |
1qa2ws 于 2019-12-03 20:51 写道: 想买就买，想卖就卖，不要看太多 |
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| 飞剑仙 |
飞剑仙 于 2019-12-03 21:00 写道: 数据虽然一样，大力妹总有惊人解释。 什么中国片美元不能出海啦，11万套可负担房屋上市啦，9千套楼花压垮MLS啦。 银行大裁员2000人啦，银行不敢房贷啦。 每一个都让人感觉今天就是世界末日了。 都嚷了两年了，别人啥事没有，楼主还是连盒饭都吃不起。 |
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