When home prices heat up, speculators often get the real estate bug — a dynamic that can grow into a dilemma for the Bank of Canada as it watches for signs of “froth” in the market.
Governor Stephen Poloz heads into Wednesday’s rate decision with a Canadian housing rebound to throw into the monetary policy mix.
"Should this housing rebound continue, we will be watching for signs of extrapolative expectations returning to certain major housing markets — in other words, froth,” Poloz told a Vancouver audience earlier this month.
“It can be very unhealthy when the situation becomes speculative.”
And while the major housing markets aren’t exactly on fire like they were several years back, solid job growth, immigration and low interest rates are fueling a resurgence in key markets.
“I do think the Bank of Canada's concerns about froth in the market — in particular in the Greater Toronto Area — are warranted,” John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty, told BNN Bloomberg in an email.
“As we saw several years ago, markets can turn from balanced to frothy on a dime and given the tight conditions in the GTA market, it's important to assess if we see similar speculative behaviour driven by market psychology rather than market fundamentals.”
The market expects the Bank to hold rates steady on Wednesday. And while critics blame past rate cuts for inflaming home prices, the health of the housing market is not the bank’s mandate.
That would be low and stable inflation.
So with that in mind, BNN Bloomberg asked several of our regular guests how much the housing market will play into Bank of Canada’s rate decisions this year.
Here’s what they had to say:
“I still think [Poloz] is wary about the potential that the Bank might cause a renewed period of speculative housing activity in some parts of the country if it cut rates. The way I think about it is that it’s not a barrier to cutting rates per se, but rather a barrier to making small adjustments to policy like some other countries have done.
The Bank’s models are probably telling it that it should cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but in the grand scheme of things the effect of such a cut on GDP and inflation would be small. They have to trade that small benefit against the risk that they cause a renewed period of speculative activity in the housing market.”
—Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist, Capital Economics. Brown made BNN Bloomberg’s Andrew Bell the star attraction in his own preview note to clients Friday, citing an unforgettable exchange last month.
论坛通告:
个人空间:
论坛转跳:
赞 
花篮 
投诉
踩 
分享
